Forum 2006: Programme and Papers

DAY 1: Wednesday, 18 October 2006

09:00 - 11:00	Registration and Tea
Opening Address: Research to Support a Critical Growth Path 11:00 - 11:30	Speaker: Tshediso Matona, Director General, DTI Please click here to listen or download the Opening Address [7.4 MB] Chair: Haroon Bhorat, DPRU

Plenary Session 1: Nine Common Fallacies about Competitiveness and Globalisation 11:30 - 12:30	Speaker: Guillermo de la Dehesa, Goldman Sachs, Europe Please click here to listen to or to download the presentation. [37 MB] Chair:Haroon Bhorat, DPRU
12:30 - 14:00	Lunch

Guidelines for Presenters and Discussants:
Plenary: 30 minutes for presenters;
Parallel Sessions (90 minutes): 20 minutes for Presenters, 5 minutes for Discussants,
15 minutes for General Discussion
14:00 - 15:30 Parallel Session 1

Parallel Session 1A: Education and the Labour Market	Parallel Session 1B: Infrastructure and Shared Growth
Chair: Murray Leibbrandt, UCT	Chair: Stephen Yeo, CEPR
Speaker 1: Unemployment, Education and Skills Constraints in Post-Apartheid South Africa. Dorrit Posel & Rosa Dias, UKZN	Speaker 1: Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of Nineteen Infrastructure Measures. Johannes Fedderke, UCT & Z Bogetic, World Bank
Discussant: Martin Wittenberg, UCT	Discussant: Jørn Rattsø, NUST, Norway
Speaker 2: Education Screening in South Africa's Labour Market. Steven F Koch & Simon Ssekabira Ntege, UP	Speaker 2: Assessing the Impact of Transnet and Eskom's Infrastructure Investment Programmes on the Capital Goods Sector and Key Constraints. Marian Walker, WITSUniversity
Discussant: Servaas van der Berg, UStell	Discussant: Alberto Behar, NuffieldCollege & OxfordUniversity
Speaker 3: Graduate Unemployment in the Face of Skills Shortages: A Labour Market Paradox. Kalie Pauw, Morné Oosthuizen & Carlene van der Westhuizen, DPRU	Speaker 3: An Economy-Wide Impact Assessment of the Economic Infrastructure Investment Component of the Accelerated & Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA). Dirk van Seventer, TIPS & Rob Davies, HSRC
Discussant: Neva Makgetla, The Presidency	Discussant: James Thurlow, IFPRI

15:30 - 16:00 Tea
16:00 - 17:30 Parallel Session 2

Parallel Session 2A: The Informal Economy	Parallel Session 2B: South African Industry
Chair: Neva Makgetla, The Presidency	Chair: Ashok Bhundia, Goldman Sachs, Europe
Speaker 1: Perceived Barriers to Entry into Self-Employment in Khayelitsha, South Africa: Crime, Risk, and Start-up Capital Dominate Profit Concerns. Paul Cichello, Loyola College, Colin Almeleh, ASRU, UCT, Liberty Ncube, & Morné Oosthuizen, DPRU	Speaker 1: Measures of Manufacturing Industry Concentration – Implications for South Africa.Clifford Naude, Exponential Economics Consulting
Discussant: Dorrit Posel, UKZN	Discussant: Witness Simbanegavi, UCT
Speaker 2: Second Best? Trends and Linkages in the Informal Economy in South Africa. Richard Devey, Caroline Skinner & Imraan Valodia, UKZN	Speaker 2: Globalisation, Imports and Local Content in the South African Automotive Industry. Anthony Black & Sipho Bhanisi, UCT
Discussant: Neil Rankin, WITSUniversity	Discussant: Nigel Gwynne-Evans, TCI
Speaker 3: Trade Dynamics in Used Clothing: The Case of Durban, South Africa. Myriam Velia, Imraan Valodia & Barutti Amisi, UKZN	Speaker 3: Weak Links in the BEE Chain? Procurement, Skills and Employment Equity in the Metals and Engineering Industries. Lesenda G Mohamed, IDC & Simon Roberts,WITSUniversity
Discussant: Matthew Stern, DNA	Discussant: Khehla Shubane, BusinessMap Foundation

DAY 2: Thursday, 19 October 2006

08:30 - 09:00

Arrival Tea/Coffee

Parallel Session 3A: Special Session: Measuring Poverty and Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa	Parallel Session 3B: Understanding Economic Growth
Chair: Haroon Bhorat, DPRU	Chair: Basil Jones, IDRC
Speaker 1: Not Separate, Not Equal: Poverty and Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa. Phillippe Leite, World Bank	Speaker 1: Questions of Growth, Questions of Development. Simon Roberts & Seeraj Mohamed, WITSUniversity
	Discussant: Stephen Gelb, The EDGE Institute
Speaker 2: Trends in Poverty and Inequality Since the Political Transistion. Servaas van der Berg, Ronelle Burger, Rulof Burger, Megan Louw and Derek Yu, UStell	Speaker 2: Barriers To Growth and Skill-Biased Income Distribution in South Africa: Ramsey Model Growth Analysis. Jørn Rattsø & Hildegunn E. Stokke, NUST, Norway
	Discussant: Johannes Fedderke, UCT
Speaker 3: The Sensitivity to Key Data Imputations of Recent Estimates of Income Poverty and Inequality in South Africa. Cally Ardington, UCT, David Lam, UMich, Murray Leibbrandt & Matthew Welch, UCT	Speaker 3: Official Revisions to South African National Accounts Data: Magnitudes and Implications. Corné van Walbeek, UCT
	Discussant: James Heintz, UMass
Speaker 4: Sticking to the Facts: Official and Unofficial Stories about Poverty and Unemployment in South Africa. Charles Meth, UKZN

10:30 - 11:00 Tea
11:00 - 12:30 Parallel Session 4

Parallel Session 4A: Education for Shared Growth	Parallel Session 4B: Special Session - China, India and Africa
Chair: Natalie Labuschagne, National Treasury	Chair: Alan Hirsch, The Presidency
Speaker 1: Progress through School in Urban South Africa: Evidence from Panel Data. David Lam, UMich, Cally Ardington & Murray Leibbrandt, UCT	Speaker 1: The Rise of China and India - What's in it for Africa? Nicolas Pinaud, OECD
Discussant: Jeremy Seekings, UCT
Speaker 2: Determinants of Grade 12 Pass Rates in the post-Apartheid South African Schooling System. Haroon Bhorat & Morné Oosthuizen, DPRU	Speaker 2: The Developmental Impact of China and India on Ethopia with Emphasis on Small Scale Footwear Producers. Tegegne GebreEgziabher, AAU
Discussant: Rulof Burger, UStell
Speaker 3: ASGISA and JIPSA: Will those who Remain Unskilled also get to Share? Alberto Behar, NuffieldCollege & OxfordUniversity	Speaker 3: An Evaluation of the Developing Economic Relationships between China and South Africa in the Context of Negotiations on a Trade Agreement. Nepeti Nicanor, Simon Roberts, Marian Walker, WITSUniversity
Discussant: Reza Daniels, UCT	Discussant (all three papers): Neo Chabane NUMSA

12:30 - 13:30 Lunch
13:30 - 15:00 Parallel Session 5

Parallel Session 5A: Health and Welfare Policy	Parallel Session 5B: Input Prices and the Economy
Chair: Servaas van der Berg, UStell	Chair: Stephen Gelb, The EDGE Institute
Speaker 1: What Evidence for Trading-off Income and Health: Disability Grants and Labour Market Outcomes for Public Sector ART Patients in the Free State. Frikkie Booysen, UOFS	Speaker 1: The Economic Impact of Rising Energy Prices: A Constraint on South Africa's Growth and Poverty Reduction Opportunities. Marcel Kohler, UKZN, Westville
Discussant: Carlene van der Westhuizen, DPRU	Discussant: Ethel Teljeur,NER
Speaker 2: Have Pro-Poor Health Policies Improved the Targeting of Spending and the Effective Delivery of Health Care in South Africa? Ronelle Burger,University of Nottingham & Christelle Swanepoel, UStell	Speaker 2: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the South African Macroeconomy: History and Prospects. Jeremy Wakeford, UCT
Discussant: Phillippe Leite, World Bank	Discussant: Owen Willcox, TIPS
Speaker 3: Determinants of Job Search Strategies: Evidence from the Khayelitsha/ Mitchell’s Plain Survey. Volker Schoer, UCT	Speaker 3:Integrated Social Development as the Accelerator of Shared Growth. Charlotte du Toit, UP
Discussant: Rosa Dias, UKZN	Discussant: Kalie Pauw, DPRU

15:00 - 15:30 Tea

15:30 - 17:00 Parallel Session 6

Parallel Session 6A: Poverty and Pro-Poor Policy	Parallel Session 6B: Productivity Constraints
Chair: Vusi Gumede, The Presidency	Chair: Stephen Hanival, TIPS
Speaker 1: Facts, Myths and Controversies: The Measurement and Analysis of Poverty and Inequality after Apartheid. Jeremy Seekings, UCT	Speaker 1: Trade Liberalisation and Pro-Poor Growth in South Africa. James Thurlow, IFPRI
Discussant: Murray Leibbrandt, UCT	Discussant: Rob Davies, HSRC
Speaker 2: Shifts in Non-Income Welfare in South Africa, 1993-2004. Haroon Bhorat, Carlene van der Westhuizen & Pranushka Naidoo, DPRU	Speaker 2: Trade Liberalisation and Wages in South African Manufacturing. Neil Rankin & Fatima Fiandiero, WITSUniversity
Discussant: Kamilla Gumede, National Treasury	Discussant: Paul Cichello, LoyolaCollege
Speaker 3: Where you Live Matters: Urbanisation and Labour Market Outcomes. Roy Havemann & Marna Kearney, National Treasury	Speaker 3: Trade and Poverty Research Project in South Africa: Lessons and Policy Recommendations. Lawrence Edwards, UCT & Matthew Stern, DNA
Discussant: Reza Daniels, UCT	Discussant: Helena McLeod,DFID

19h30

GALA DINNER

Speaker: Joel Netshitenzhe
The Presidency
Debating Challenges of a Higher Growth Trajectory
Please click here to listen to or to download the speech Audio [15 MB]

DAY 3: Friday, 20 October 2006

08:30 - 09:00

Arrival Tea/Coffee

Plenary Session 2:
International Trade for a Middle Income Country (add link to paper here)
09:00 - 10:30

Speaker: Tony Venables, DFID & LSE

Please click here to listen to the presentation

Chair: Stephen Hanival, TIPS

10:30 - 11:00

Tea

11:00 - 12:30 Parallel Session 7

Parallel Session 7A: Labour Market Dynamics	Parallel Session 7B: South Africa’s Investment Climate
Chair: Botshabelo Maja, DoL	Chair: Lawrence Edwards, UCT
Speaker 1:The South African Labour Market 1995-2004: A Cohort Analysis. Nicola Branson, UCT	Speaker 1: South Africa: An Assessment of the Investment Climate. Vijaya Ramachandran, George Clarke & Dave Kaplan, UCT
Discussant: Sean Archer, UCT	Discussant: Simon Roberts, WITSUniversity
Speaker 2: Rising Unemployment in the South African Labour Market: A Dynamic Analysis Using Birth Cohort Panels. Rulof Burger & Dieter von Fintel, UStell	Speaker 2: Driving a Regional Sector Development Programme: Lessons from the Western Cape, 1999-2005. Nigel Gwynne-Evans, TCI
Discussant: Cecil Mlatsheni, UCT	Anthony Black, UCT
Speaker 3: Robust Estimates of Okun's Coefficient for South Africa. Marina Marinkov & JP Geldenhuys, UOFS
Discussant: Robert Pollin, UMass

12:30 - 13:30 Lunch
13:30 - 15:00 Parallel Session 8

Parallel Session 8A: Shared Growth: Discrete Issues	Parallel Session 8B: Productivity and Growth
Chair: Goolam Aboobaker, The Presidency	Chair: Johannes Fedderke, UCT
Speaker 1: Evaluating South Africa’s Export Performance. Owen Willcox & Dirk van Seventer, TIPS	Speaker 1: The Barrier Model of Productivity Growth: South Africa. Torfinn Harding, World Bank & Jørn Rattsø, NUST, Norway
Discussant: Seeraj Mohamed, WITSUniversity	Discussant: Stephen Yeo, CEPR
Speaker 2: i-Dollar eyi one! – Language, Economic Participation and Shared Growth in South Africa. Ana Deumert & Nkululeko Mabandla, UCT	Speaker 2: Encouraging Innovation and Productivity Growth in Africa to Create Decent Jobs. Susanna Wolf, UNECA
Discussant: Volker Schoer, UCT	Discussant: Dave Kaplan, UCT
Speaker 3: An Employment-Targeted Economic Program for South Africa: Brief Highlights of Major Proposals. Robert Pollin, Jerry Epstein, James Heintz & Leonce Ndikumana, UMass	Speaker 3: Social and Economic Infrastructure Impacts on Economic Growth in South Africa. Chandi Kularatne, National Treasury
Discussant: Charles Meth, UKZN	Discussant: Morné Oosthuizen, DPRU

15:00 - 15:30
Conference Closure

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