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Janet Wilhelm

This paper is intended to contribute to the discussion on how to build a broader framework to respond to the EU CBAM and engage in diplomacy with the EU to support South Africa and Africa’s “just energy transition”. With South Africa being the Presidency of the G20 in 2025, this also provides African countries with an excellent opportunity to engage with all G20 members (including the United States (US)) on how to restore the integrity of the multilateral trading system and advance a just transition for African countries that also advances their economic development and social transformation. 

The aims of this study were to review current policies and initiatives in the cosmetics sector, including funding support; developing a cosmetic sector strategy over the short- and long-terms; and defining funding and technical models to support the implementation of the strategy. It comprises a brief literature review, analysis of the data provided by international and local agencies, findings from the survey of cosmetic and retail firms in South Africa, and recommendations for the way forward.

This report is a summary of a feasibility study that explores the potential of promoting timber in South African construction by addressing challenges and leveraging benefits. It emphasises capacity building and demand creation deliverables to unlock timber’s environmental, economic, and social benefits in various construction industries.

The study was prepared for TIPS on behalf of the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition  by Enterprises University of Pretoria (Pty) Ltd

TIPS industry studies aim to provide a comprehensive overview of key trends in leading industries in South Africa. They aim to provide background for policymakers and researchers and strengthen our understanding of current challenges and opportunities in each industry, thereby enabling a more strategic response.

This industry study examines global trade trends in the electronics industry, with a focus on South Africa’s position in the global trade of electronic products.  

09 July 2025

Bongeka Ngcobo

Bongeka Ngcobo holds a degree in Social Science and an Honours in Social Science (Public Policy), both from the University of KwaZulu Natal. She has over five years of experience in donor-funded programmes. She also has an extensive background in administration , community development, youth empowerment and stakeholder relations. 

Zamaswazi Shabalala has over a decade of experience as a project coordinator and administrator across higher education, non-profit, and international development sectors. She has a proven track record in stakeholder management, project management and programme implementation, data management, logistics, budget management, and event coordination. She holds a Diploma in Office Management and Technology (majoring in Business Administration) from the University of South Africa (Unisa), and a Diploma in Information Technology (NQF 5) from Jeppe College of Commerce and Computer Studies. She is pursuing a Bachelor of Business Administration (majoring in Business Management) at Unisa. She has completed short courses in Project Management from the University of Stellenbosch and Financial Management from Ninette Mouton.

Main Bulletin:  The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2025

Main Bulletin: The Read Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2025

In this edition

GDP: The GDP barely grew from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025. It inched up at an annual rate of only 0.1% in annualised terms, with actual growth for the quarter at a barely perceivable 0.025%. Most sectors actually shrank, with a 0.3% contraction in annualised terms in non-agricultural GDP in the first quarter of 2025. Read more.

Employment: Employment grew in the year to March 2025, although it continued to lag expansion in the working-aged population. The formal sector as a whole lost jobs, however. Falling employment in domestic service and retail trade was reportedly offset by growth in manufacturing, which gained just over 70 000 new positions, as well as most other services. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), within manufacturing only the metals and clothing industries experienced substantial job losses. The survey found significant job gains in machinery and auto despite their falling sales. Read more.

Infrastructure: In the first quarter of 2025, Eskom’s electricity supply fell back to levels last seen a year earlier, but the tonnage carried on rail and road and through the ports recovered slightly. Both rail and electricity are well below their levels a decade ago, while road freight and private electricity sold to the grid have grown. Eskom’s tariffs increased by around 10% above inflation in April 2025, adding to the cost burden especially on electricity-intensive producers. Read more.

International trade: South Africa ran a trade surplus in the first quarter of 2025, despite the normal seasonal downturn in mining exports. In manufacturing, auto exports grew by more than 10% in constant rand terms. Metals exports fell by a similar amount, mostly because ferrochrome production shrank thanks to lower world prices and escalating grid electricity costs. Read more.

Investment and profitability: Private investment fell at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter of 2025, the worst decline since the pandemic downturn in the second quarter of 2020. As a result, although investment by state-owned companies increased, total gross fixed capital formation shrank by 2%. Investment is now 14% below the first quarter of 2019. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS Foreign Direct Investment Tracker monitors FDI projects quarterly, using published investment information. It added 15 projects in the first quarter of 2025. The announced investment value for eight projects that reported values in the quarter came to R17.4 billion. The tracker recorded investments in manufacturing, services, mining, electricity and agriculture for the quarter. It updated 13 existing projects. Read more.

Briefing Note 1: Provincial economic developments - by Lucas Mthembu and Neva Makgetla. TIPS’s annual Provincial Review analyses key economic and policy developments in South African provinces. It highlights shifts in the national economic geography as shaped by the GDP, population, employment, business activity, and infrastructure at provincial level. The review includes a separate, detailed overview for each province. The 2024 review analyses provincial trends up to 2023, using the most recent data available as of early 2025. This briefing note summarises the key findings of The Real Economic Bulletin Provincial Review 2024. Read the Briefing Note online: Provincial economic developments.

Briefing Note 2: Greening industral policy in South Africa: Insights from China, the United States and the European Union - by Michael Hector.  The European Union Green Deal Industrial Plan, the US Inflation Reduction Act, and China’s 14th Five-Year Plan are substantial policies with the potential to significantly influence the transition to greener economies. These policies, while green-focused, are integral to broader strategies aimed at economic and social recovery from the 2020 pandemic and enhancing global competitiveness. This brief draws on a recent TIPS working paper publication: Greening Industrial Policy in South Africa: Insights from China, the United States and the European Union.  Read the Briefing Note online.

Luthandolwethu Zondi joined TIPS as an Economist in October 2023. Prior to this, she served as a Junior Researcher at the Centre for Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators (CeSTII), where her focus was on conducting survey research related to Science, Technology, and Innovation. With an MPhil in Development Finance (Cum Laude) from the University of Stellenbosch Business School, Luthando's areas of expertise include inclusive economic development, financial inclusion, and sustainable development.

The State of Small Business in South Africa, a special edition of the Real Economy Bulletin, summarises the available information on the number of small businesses, in total and by industry and province; their contribution to the GDP and employment; ownership by race, gender and age; and access to skills and infrastructure. For the formal sector, it also reviews the available data on the sector’s investment and profitability. The analysis is primarily based on household surveys and financial data through 2024.

Key findings

  • The available (limited) data suggest that formal small businesses contributed 19% of GDP and 33% of employment in 2023. The informal sector generated just under 5% of GDP but provided 17% of employment, mostly in the form of own-account workers, who operated microenterprises with no other employees.
  • Formal small employers have seen a decline in both numbers and employment since the 2020 COVID-19 downturn. In contrast, formal own-account workers and informal businesses have more than recovered. Value added by formal small business reportedly dropped 7% in 2023, presumably largely due to loadshedding and slow overall economic growth.
  • Small business in South Africa has long lagged far behind other upper middle income countries. Only around 6% of all working-aged adults are employers or own-account workers in South Africa, compared to 20% in other upper middle income countries outside of China, and 27% in China.
  • The largest sectors for small formal business are commercial services and trade, followed by manufacturing. In the informal sector, trade is far more important, followed by community services and construction. The latter includes own-account artisans such as plumbers and electricians
  • Whites owned 38% of small formal businesses in 2024, although they comprised only 7% of the working-aged population. Fifteen years ago, whites owned 57%. African women owned only 13% of small formal businesses in 2024, although they made up 41% of the working-aged population
  • The median age of formal business owners is 47, ten years more than for waged employees. One in ten white business owners is at retirement age
  • The median income for formal employers in 2024 was R15 000 a month, compared to R10 000 for the self employed. It was R4800 for waged workers in small formal business,and in large businesses it was R6000. Median incomes in the informal sector ranged from R5000 for employers to R2000 for waged workers and only R1200 for own-account workers.
  • In the lowest-income 60% of households, only 8% said earnings from a business formed their most important income source. In the richest 10% of households, 17% said most of their income came from a business.
  • Small formal businesses owned around 20% of private formal-sector assets in 2023. In contrast, most indicators suggest informal businesses had almost no assets at all.
  • In 2024, Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal accounted for 74% of formal small business, compared to 58% of the working-aged population and a similar share in informal businesses. The number of formal employers has grown steadily only in the Western Cape. The provincial spread of informal business is proportional to the population.
  • Waged workers in small formal business were half as likely to be union members as those in larger companies, with virtually no union members in the informal sector. Smaller formal businesses were substantially less likely than larger ones to provide retirement or medical funds, or to meet requirements in the Basic Conditions of Employment Act.
  • In 2024, 22% of formal own-account business owners had graduated university, up from 17% in 2009. For formal employers, the share had risen from 13% to 17%. In contrast, only 5% of waged workers in small formal businesses had a degree in 2024. Under 5% of informal business owners had a degree, and only 30% had at least matric, compared to 55% of their formal counterparts.
  • According to Statistics South Africa, 50% of informal businesses operated in their own homes in 2023. Over 30% worked outside (at an open market, taxi rank or sidewalk), 11% in someone else’s home, and only 5% in a non-residential building. For business owners in the poorest 60% of households, around 90% had electricity at home but only 60% had running water. Just 14% had a computer, although 80% had a smartphone.

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From Q3 2014 to Q3 2024 South Africa's imports and exports both trended upwards, with growth in exports outpacing growth in imports. In Q3 2024, exports are 22% higher than they were in Q3 2014, while imports are 3% higher. In addition, the quarterly average for exports (R459 billion in constant 2024 rand) was higher than it was for imports, at R428 billion. South Africa went from subsequent quarters with a negative trade balance, at the start of the timeframe, to subsequent quarters with a positive trade balance, at the end of the timeframe.  

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