The Conversation - 26 May 2020 by Faizel Ismail

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Business Day - 26 May 2020 by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (TIPS Senior Economist) and Jesse Burton (Senior Associate at E3G and the University of Cape Town).

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Business Day - 25 May 2020 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Or read as a PDF.

Presentations

Neva Makgetla: TIPS COVID-19 Tracker: The economy and the pandemic
Owen Willcox: The macroeconomic response to the COVID crisis
Gaylor Montmasson-Clair: A case for a green and just economic stimulus package

Media

Why QE is the best way to fund stimulus needed to get SA throughCovid-19 crisis (LynleyDonnelly - Business Day 4 June 2020)
Placing green stimulus at heart of South Africa's postpandemic recovery would yield big co-benefits (Terence Creamer - Engineering News 4 June 2020)

Background

The 2020 forecast for South Africa's economic growth at -7% would be the worst since democracy, and is likely to come with massive job losses and firms closing down. There are however options to mitigate the economic impact of the disease. They include a shift in the macro-economic approach as well as ramping up new industries, including renewables. This Development Dialogue will start with a review of the latest trends in the pandemic and the economy, and then consider at-scale responses to the economic downturn.

About the Speakers

Baba-Tamana Gqubule is a senior economist at TIPS and has experience as a Policy Analyst at the Economic Development Department.
Owen Willcox is a Principal Consultant at Oxford Policy Management and previously worked at National Treasury for 11 years.
Gaylor Montmasson-Clair is a senior economist at TIPS. Gaylor has written extensively on the green economy, renewables and the just transition.
Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Dr Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government.

This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The number of new cases stabilised outside of the Western Cape, where they continued to escalate, and the Eastern Cape, where they fluctuate significantly over time. The average daily growth in identified cases declined in the most affected provinces (Western Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu Natal and the Eastern Cape), but increased sharply in Limpopo as three major mines reported outbreaks.
• The Western Cape effectively faced a qualitatively different pandemic from the rest of South Africa, with 200 cases per 100 000 people compared to 13 per 100 000 in the rest of the country. The reasons included how the province managed screening and quarantine; relatively dense informal settlements with largely shared facilities; and its role as a global tourism hub.
• The main epidemiological model projects a spike in winter but indicates that it can be avoided if South Africans work to prevent infections through changes in behaviour, including
  reorganising work and public transport, and stringent public health measures.

On the economy

• On Sunday, 24 May, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that all businesses could open except for recreational and personal services, as long as they had plans to maintain physical distancing. He did not, however, indicate how rigorous physical distancing measures would be, including in the high-risk areas of public transport and retail.
• The economic boost from the move to Level 4 largely ran out of steam, with only limited increases in economic activity in the second week. On Wednesday, the SARB predicted a 7% fall in the GDP for the year, down from its April forecast of a 6,1% decline.
• At the company level, four large mines closed temporarily due to outbreaks after resuming work under Level 4; a number of SOCs fell deeper into crisis; and the R500-million fund for small business was fully allocated by Friday, providing funds to around 5% of the applicants.
• The UIF had provided R14 billion to benefit 2,5 million furloughed workers. By the end of the week only 10 people had received the COVID-19 special grant (worth R350 a month), with another 100 000 applications finalised. All told, 4,5 million had applied and 2,6 million had been verified.

Download a copy or read the Tracker online.

Sugar is a key agricultural industry for South Africa, with sugarcane being the second largest South African field crop by gross value, surpassed only by maize. The industry generates R14 billion in revenues, with sugarcane farming contributing around 64% of this figure, employing up to 85 000 people across the growing and milling subsectors, and providing indirect employment to possibly up to 350 000 workers within the value chain. The industry contributes around 10% to 11% of the country’s total agricultural employment of about 850 000 and may, through the families of those directly and indirectly employed, impact the livelihoods of close to one million people or close to 2% of the South African population. 

The industry, however, remains mainly a single income stream industry, reliant almost entirely on sugar sales for revenue. Yet globally, the sugar industry is experiencing a drive for commercial sustainability focused on the diversification of income streams, with sugar industries expanding their focus to include the production of renewable energy and biochemicals. This report move looks at options for South Africa.

Engineering News -  15 May 2020 by Donna Slater 

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Business Day - 10 May 2020 by Hilary Joffe

Read online at Business Day.

In 2015, TIPS, at the request of the then Department of Science and Technology, undertook a project to define "green research and development (R&D)" and determine the levels of green R&D investment in South Africa. In 2019, TIPS was requested by the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) to update and, where possible, enhance the initial 2015 research.

The purpose of the study was to assess progress made towards the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) target set by DSI for the period 2014-2019. While the principles and definitional framework remained the same as the 2015 study, TIPS, in collaboration with the DSI and CeSTII, refined the understanding of green R&D in 2019. This report provides the adjusted figures for the 2010/11-2012/13 period and also shows the trends in green R&D expenditure over seven years, from 2010/11 to 2016/17.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states have placed industrial development at the core of the region’s integrated development agenda. This report by Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and the Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR) is part of a programme that seeks to identify existing and potential opportunities to further the development of specific value chains among and across SADC member states.

The paper explores and assesses regional competitiveness and opportunities in the electrotechnical industry for both South Africa and Zambia. It offers an in-depth assessment of the structure and status of the electrotechnical value chain in these countries by presenting production and consumption patterns, input suppliers and producers, export markets for products from the sectors, as well as the import patterns in relevant subsectors. This research looks at these themes for the purpose of informing cross-cutting country policy initiatives based on a shared understanding of industrial development challenges at a regional level.