Engineering News -  8 June 2020 

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Business Day - 28 May 2020 by Claire Bisseker

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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The country moved into Level 3 this week, bringing a heightened risk of contagion as around five million people returned to work and church services reopened. From the past week, however, the pandemic accelerated in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, with the growth in infections rising to almost 6% a day. At that rate, the number of cases will double every two weeks, and the move to Level 3 could aggravate the situation further.
• The Cape Town health system has begun to show signs of strain, with high levels of infection among health workers leading to shortages and efforts to recruit from other provinces. Still, the rate of infection has slowed, apparently in large part due to improved tracing. If these efforts deteriorate again, however, or Level 3 means the contagion takes off again, further lockdowns may become unavoidable.
• Despite the move to Level 3, there was still little sign of a government education campaign to empower people to manage the new risks they face at work, in public transport, in their families and in the newly reopened spaces for worship.

On the economy

• Clusters continued to emerge in mining, retail, the public services and some manufacturing establishments. Outbreaks also appeared in a few residential institutions, which in other countries have had a disproportionate effect on mortality from COVID-19. But only the mining industry provided an overview of trends, making it difficult for the public at least to identify the main areas of risk.
• The trade data show that South African exports declined by 55% in rand terms in April, although imports fell only 7%. For comparison, total US imports dropped 20% in April, while for China they fell 6%. The largest decline in South Africa’s exports emerged in the auto industry, followed by gold and base metals.
• The extent of fiscal pressure on municipalities because of the pandemic began to emerge in May. Because the metros depend primarily on their own revenue, rather than national grants, they faced the greatest difficulties, since their income plummeted while demands increased. The national government has committed R20 billion for assistance, but has not yet indicated allocations between municipalities. In any case the funds will likely only become available in early August, following the adjustment budget.

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Engineering News -  5 June 2020 by Tasneem Bulbulia

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Business Day - 4 June 2020 by Luyolo Mkwntane

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Business Day - 4 June 2020 by Lynley Donnelly

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Engineering News -  4 June 2020 by Terence Creamer 

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Engineering News -  1 June 2020 

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Engineering News -  30 April 2020 by Marleny Arnoldi 

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This TIPS tracker highlights important trends in the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa, and how they affect the economy. It analyses publically available data, research and media reports to identify current developments and reflect on the prognosis for the contagion, the economy, and policy responses.

KEY FINDINGS FOR THE WEEK

On the pandemic

• The rate of growth in cases surged in KwaZulu Natal and Gauteng, although it slowed in the Western Cape. If the rate of growth outside of the Western Cape is not contained, the number of cases there will double in two weeks – about a week sooner than if the rate of growth had remained the same as last week.
• Government’s decision to define Level 3 as opening most of the economy plus churches and schools represented a fundamental shift in approach and responsibility. It required individuals and groups to manage risk rather than adhering to regulations banning hazardous activities. To succeed, this strategy must combine measures to ensure that people have the information and resources they need for sound decision-making with stringent and swift management of outbreaks. Government did not, however, move to substantially scale-up programmes and expertise to help individuals understand risks and change their behaviour. Nonetheless, it appeared increasingly willing to permit even highly risky activities to reopen in the near future.
• New studies suggested that COVID-19 is disproportionately spread through a few super-spreading events, typically when large numbers are in fairly crowded spaces for a significant period. By extension, the biggest risks under Level 3 arise from public transport, mines, churches, and spaces where significant groups meet at work, including during breaks.

On the economy

• Under Level 3, which starts on 1 June, all businesses except for personal services, recreation and sit-down restaurants will be permitted to reopen. That means that around 90% of workers could return to work, although employers must still have people work from home when possible.
• The third week of Level 4 showed only a limited increase in economic activity but a surge in work-related hotspots, notably in the mines but also in health and the police as well as some retail chains and factories. Most industries did not, however, appear to have a defined structure to identify and mitigate risk factors as they emerged.
• Significant differences emerged in the effectiveness of the various funds established to support workers, businesses and households during the lockdown. The programmes that built on existing programmes have disbursed billions of funds. In contrast, when disbursements required new systems to identify and appraise applicants, relatively few applicants have received any support.

Download a copy or read the Tracker online

Download a copy or read the Tracker online.