Business Day - 23 November 2020 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Financial Mail  - 19 November 2020 by Claire Bisseker

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Global Center on Adaptation - 17 September 2020 by Andrew Wright

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This working paper provides an initial overview of the impacts and outcomes of the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) policy. It also draws on business responses to a questionnaire to gain insights into the implementation process. The paper evaluates the BBBEE Codes against their core objectives – representivity in ownership, management and skilled occupations; support for suppliers and other small businesses; and skills development. It analyses the BBBEE ratings achieved by industry. When possible, it estimates the value of the impacts and outcomes. Based on the analysis, the final section notes areas where implementation could be better aligned with the over-arching aim of inclusive industrialisation. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Competition, Business Unity South Africa and its member associations, and the Manufacturing Circle assisted in reviewing and circulating the questionnaire. 

TIPS FORUM SPEAKER AND MODERATOR BIOS

MEDIA RELEASES:

Dealing with the crisis before the crisis requires economic reconstruction

Rethinking industrialisation in response to COVID-19

Context for the conference

Economic recovery since the 2008/09 financial crisis, across countries and within economies, has been uneven. South Africa has experienced relatively stagnant GDP growth and uneven patterns of growth across and within its sectors, as well as high levels of inequality and unemployment, with the absorption rate well below that of other upper-middle-income countries. In addition, participation in the South African economy continues to be shaped by race, gender, class and geographical location. The impact of COVID-19 is likely to result in severe shifts in the global and domestic political economy and likely to deepen pre-existing structural constraints on growth in the medium to long term.   

The impact of COVID-19 on South Africa’s trading partners is likely to result in long-term subdued foreign demand for South African goods and services. Traditional pathways to industrialisation, i.e. the dynamics and processes of external and domestic linkages that facilitate structural change, are being challenged. In this context, debates related to the appropriate application of specific industrial policy tools which aim to facilitate transformative structural change, have resurfaced.

Assessing and addressing the impact of the pandemic on African economies and societies is necessary to inform and tailor the appropriate responses of African governments to facilitate economic recovery, while expanding access for the most vulnerable groups in society to participate in the economy.

African governments have implemented stimulus packages, containment measures and other necessary restrictions to limit the spread of the virus and to sustain and balance the economy. The implementation of public policy measures, in response to the pandemic, has triggered questions about the systemic resilience of global and domestic value chains, as well as renewed interest in advocating for the diversification and localisation of production and shorter supply chains in certain sectors that can adapt in times of crisis.

The recovery will require mobilising efforts between public, private, national and regional leaders across a number of key areas. The 2021 Forum will explore these issues and bring together academics, policymakers and practitioners involved in the various aspects of regional industrial development. The aim is to deepen the understanding of a cross-section of issues, and the related opportunities and challenges.

South Africa had a trade surplus of R109 billion in the third quarter of 2020, up from R6 billion in the third quarter of 2019. In constant 2020 Rand, this is the highest trade surplus South Africa has had in the past decade. The high surplus appears to be the result of low imports due to lower crude oil imports, as well as the increased spread of COVID-19 pandemic among major trade partners like Germany and the United State, while exports surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels due to high exports to China and the US. In the year to the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 10% to R388 billion, from R353 billion in the third quarter of 2019. However, between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020, exports grew by 49%. In contrast, imports declined by 20% to R278 billion in the year to the third quarter of 2020, and grew just 8% between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2020.

See Imports localisation and supply chain disruption study - Third Quarter 2020

The bulletin is a review of quarterly trends, developments and data in the real economy, together with analysis of the main manufacturing industries. Briefing note in this issue is on South Africa's emerging recovery strategy. The Real Economy Bulletin - Fourth Quarter 2020.

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - Third Quarter 2020

In this edition

Gross domestic product:  In the third quarter of 2020, the GDP recovered 13.5% after the extraordinary downturn that led to an overall decline of 16% in the second quarter. As a result, although quarterly output was still at levels last seen in 2016, it was on track to do better than most forecasts. The biggest risk to the recovery in the short run remains a second wave of COVID-19 as a result of socialising and travel over the holiday season. Read more.

Employment: The rebound in employment lagged behind the recovery in production in the third quarter. Job losses have been highest for the working poor outside of agriculture – that is, lower paid formal workers, informal entrepreneurs and employees, and domestic workers. In contrast, formal managers and professionals have seen only marginal job losses, in part because they can more easily work from home. Employment in manufacturing saw a sharper decline in the second quarter and a slower recovery than the rest of the economy. Read more.

International trade: South Africa saw a strong recovery in its exports, especially gold, platinum and autos, in the third quarter. In contrast, imports remained subdued, mostly because of a combination of low petroleum prices and demand. These trends resulted in the highest balance-of-trade surplus since the transition to democracy. Read more.

Investment: The slowdown and uncertainty from the pandemic led to a near stand-still in investment by both private and state-owned companies. Since production recovered more strongly, investment fell to 16% of the GDP in the third quarter of 2020, its lowest level in almost 20 years. The latest available data on profitability suggest that manufacturing returns sank to almost zero in the second quarter, although other sectors did somewhat better. Read more.

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS FDI Tracker tracks foreign direct investment projects on a quarterly basis, using published information. Eleven projects were recorded this quarter, and the status and activities of four companies were updated. The total value of new investments recorded was approximately R6.2 billion from seven projects that reported a figure. Compared to the second quarter, the third quarter had more activity as lockdown regulations eased. Some companies have changed their plans as a result of the pandemic, however. Read more.

Briefing note: The global climate change regime and its impacts on South Africa’s trade and competitiveness: Overall, the rise of the global climate change regime has deep implications for South Africa’s exports. On the one hand, South African sales are at risk from measures aimed at curbing trade in carbon-intensive goods as well as imports from carbon-intensive jurisdictions. On the other, with the rise of the international climate change regime, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have emerged as a new commodity. They can effectively be traded between countries through the import and export of products and services, when emissions are “embodied” within products.Read the briefing note online: The global climate change regime and its impacts on South Africa’s trade and competitiveness.

Business Day - 9 November 2020 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

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Business Day - 9 November 2020 by Lisa Steyn

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