This paper looks at the future of South Africa-United Kingdom trade relations in the post-Brexit period. It provides a brief background and looks at the history of trade relations until the onset of democracy in1994. It then looks at SA-UK trade relations since 1994, including the negotiations the led to the Southern African Development Community-Economic Partnership Agreement. This sets the context for the current SA-UK negotiations for a post-Brexit trade arrangement. The question this paper seeks to address is: will the post-Brexit period be characterised by an increasingly aggressive Britain striving to re-assert its power in the World and advance its mercantilist interests in South Africa and Africa, or shall the world see a new idealist Britain seeking to increase cooperation in its own region and the world, re-building multilateral governance based on the values and principles of inclusivity, equity and sustainable development? It will be argued that South Africa should expect the first scenario but also prepare to influence the UK towards the second scenario.  Some policy recommendations will be made both for South Africa and Africa in their future post-Brexit trade and investment relations.

The paper will become part of a series of research papers produced in co-operation between the Centre for Comparative Law in Africa at UCT, the Nelson Mandel School of Public Governance at UCT and TIPS.

Business Day - 26 June 2019 by Gaylor Montmasson-Clair (TIPS senior economist)

Read online at Business Day

Business Day - 25 June 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day.

Or read as a PDF.

Engineering News 18 June 2019 by Nadine James

Read article online

Business Day - 27 May 2019 by Faizel Ismail (Designate director of the Nelson Mandela School of Governance and TIPS research fellow)

Read online at Business Day

Main Bulletin: The Real Economy Bulletin - First Quarter 2019  

In this edition

GDP growth: The GDP declined in the first quarter of 2019, while the economy lost jobs. The downturn continues the trend of volatile growth rates that began five years ago. Previous quarterly downturns in this period, however, were driven by agriculture; in contrast, the past quarter saw a broad-based decline. The briefing note on the economic slowdown explores factors behind these trends. Read more.

Employment: Employment in the real economy fell by 160 000 jobs in the year to the first quarter of 2019. It is now at the same level it was in 2015. Manufacturing and construction accounted for the bulk of the net loss in jobs. In the rest of the economy, community and social services lost more than 200 000 jobs while other sectors gained employment. Overall, employment as a whole lost jobs for only the second time since 2010. Read more. 

International trade: In constant rand terms, South African exports have barely grown since 2013. In US dollars, they climbed from 2016 to mid-2018, but fell more than 10% in the six months to March 2019. Nonetheless, an even faster decline in imports – due in part to slow growth and in part to fairly low petroleum prices – meant that the balance of payments remained positive, although a deficit emerged in the first quarter of 2019. Read more.

Investment and profitability: The 2% fall in investment from the year to the first quarter 2018 to the year to the first quarter 2019 was a central factor behind the economic downturn. The sharpest decline emerged for public investment, although both state-owned enterprises and government departments reported a recovery in the first quarter of 2019 alone. Private investment, in contrast, grew slightly year on year, but contracted sharply from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019. Read more.  

Foreign direct investment projects: The TIPS FDI Tracker tracks foreign direct investment projects, analysing new and updated projects quarterly. Based on media monitoring, it added 14 new projects in the past quarter. Ten of these were in manufacturing, and five were greenfield projects. Six projects previously captured in the Tracker have been updated, with two reaching completion. Read more. 

Briefing note: The economic slowdown: The first quarter of 2019 saw a convergence of poor economic data. The GDP fell by 0.8%; investment, by 1.1%; and exports by 2%. Employment dropped by 1.4%, or 240 000 jobs. Seasonal job losses are not uncommon in the first quarter, but from 2010 to 2018 they averaged just 0.1%, so 2019 saw a significantly larger fall. Read the briefing note online: The economic slowdown.

Briefing note: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) - Supporting inclusive growth and transformation: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) requires 22 countries to ratify its adoption and submit proof/deposit the instruments of ratification with the African Union (AU) for it to come into effect. On 29 April that happened, and on 30 May 2019 the free trade agreement came into effect. Read the briefing note online: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Supporting inclusive growth and transformation.

Business Day - 14 May 2019 by Neva Makgetla (TIPS Senior Economist)

Read online at Business Day.

Or read as a PDF.

Mail & Guardian - 7 June 2019 by Tshegofatso Mathe 

Read online at Mail & Guardian.

AGENDA

14:15 - 14:30 Arrival and coffee / tea

14:30 - 14:45 Opening and welcome by chairperson

14:45 - 16:00 Presentations:

Neva Makgetla: Unemployment and GDP in perspective
Rudi Dicks: Accelerating industrial policy to drive growth

16:00 - 16:30 Discussion

16:30 Closure and light snacks

BACKGROUND

The latest jobs numbers and GDP figures point to the urgency of a strategy to put the economy on an upward trajectory. South Africa has huge capacity, but the vicious cycle of slow growth from 2015 is eroding the resilience of the economy and policy space. In this context, industrial policy has been put forward as an enabler, with the Presidency committed to driving growth through a more systematic approach to industry support and unblocking constraints.

This development dialogue will outline the recent economic data and discuss the potential role for industrial policy and stimulus options.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Rudi Dicks is the outcome 4 facilitator in the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation in the Presidency.

Neva Makgetla is a senior economist at TIPS. Makgetla has published widely on the South African economy and worked for many years in government, most recently as Deputy Director General for Policy in the Economics Development Department, as well as in COSATU.

Engineering News - 31 May 2019 by Marleny Arnoldi (Creamer Media)

Read online at Engineering News.