ANNOUNCEMENT

Introduction to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling with GAMS Workshop

Trade and Industry Policy Strategies (TIPS)

13-18 May, 2013

Pretoria

Most economics curricula deal with macroeconomic tools for studying the economy as a whole and microeconomic tools for studying the behaviour of individual agents or markets. However, practical public and private sector economic analysts often need an economy-wide focus that combines the macroeconomics of the economy as a whole with structural detail that permits analysis of impacts at the sector or household level and of the consequences of interactions amongst them.

Economic modelling techniques that capture economy-wide impacts of policy changes are increasingly being used in academic, consulting, research and policy environments. Input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) analysis are used on a regular basis to analyse the impact of policy-related and other changes on the economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models build on these techniques to allow for a wide range of behavioural responses and interactions. Both these approaches have been extended to address broader concerns, such as the impact of policy on the environment or on energy requirements.

These techniques were once the preserve of a handful of leading theoreticians. The IT revolution has allowed them to become part of the practical economist's everyday toolkit. In 2001 Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) started (co-)presenting introductory workshops to cater for the rising demand for these techniques. Since then it has held ten workshops on Economy-Wide Policy Impact Analysis. These have laid the foundation for participation in workshops introducing CGE modelling, of which TIPS has hosted eight. In addition, TIPS has conducted several advanced modelling workshops. These workshops have contributed to the development of a community of builders and users of economy-wide models in Southern Africa.

In May 2013 TIPS will be hosting a workshop on an introduction to GCE modelling using GAMS software. The workshop is designed and presented by academics and experts in the field of economy-wide policy modelling. It integrates theory, real world data, hands-on computer work and real world application. Participants are

• introduced to the micro, macro and trade theories that underlie typical CGE models;
• offered an overview and practical examples of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and of parameter and elasticity estimation methods which typically provide the data on which CGEs are built;
• instructed in the necessary commands in GAMS, a programming language widely used in economy-wide policy modelling; and
• exposed to issues involved in using models for specific applications, such as the analysis of trade, public finance, regulation and environmental economics.

These components of the modeller's tool-kit are taught in an integrated and cumulative way. The theory is developed alongside the practical applications, which move from introductory exercises through to more advanced applications. The applications use materials developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and adapted by the workshop instructors to suit Southern African economies.

Participants will apply what they learn to a mini-project, which will be presented to the class at the end of the workshop. By that time, all participants will have sufficient competence to be able to continue developing their skills independently.

The workshop is targeted at those who wish to develop professional expertise in the area with the need to understand the potential and limitations of the use of these approaches. As such it should appeal to analysts in both the public and the private sectors, as well as to students and academics. The workshop is part of the development of a community of builders and users of economy-wide models in Southern Africa.

The workshop builds on previous TIPS Introduction to CGE events in which the GAMS software was not used directly (http://www.tips.org.za/event/fully-booked-introduction-economy-wide-modelling-policy-analysis) and their participants are encouraged to apply. However, no previous exposure to CGE modelling is required, although without it, applicants will be expected to have proven familiarity with SAMs and SAM based modelling through the attendance of previous workshops or courses and/or have a strong proven quantitative and numerical interest.

No pre-reading in CGE is required and all necessary materials will be provided for the course, but interested participants may wish to consult the following references as preliminary reading:

Lofgren, H; Harris, DL & Robinson, S, 2002, A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS, Microcomputers in Policy Research 5, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/standard-computable-general-equilibrium-cge-model-gams-0

Lofgren, H, 2003, Exercises in general equilibrium modeling using GAMS and key to exercises in CGE modeling using GAMS, Microcomputers in Policy Research 4a, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/exercises-general-equilibrium-modeling-using-gams-and-key-exercises-cge-modeling-using-g

Fees and Applications

Workshop fees (including sandwich lunch): R12,000 (excluding VAT), US$2,000 for participants from Developed Countries). To ensure that the workshop is pitched at the correct level, we invite interested participants to complete the attached form and send it to denves@xtra.co.nz before 15 March 2013. Successful applicants will be invoiced upon successful registration and payment will be due by 12 April 2013, failing which reserved places will be offered to other applicants on a first come (receipt of payment), first served basis. A 10% discount is offered to more than two applications from a single institution. The organisers reserve the right to cancel the event if the minimum number of 15 participants is not reached by the payment due date of 12 April 2013. The maximum number of participants is 20.

Further information on registration, accommodation and required preparation can be obtained from the workshop conveners:

Dirk Ernst van Seventer                     or                     Rob Davies

denves@xtra.co.nz                                                 robdavieszim@gmail.com

Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) is pleased to announce a short workshop on computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, to be held at the TIPS offices in Pretoria from 5-9 March 2012. It will be restricted to 16 participants.

• introduced to the micro, macro and trade theories that underlie typical CGE models;
• provided with an overview and practical examples of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and of parameter and elasticity estimation methods which typically provide the data on which CGEs are built;
• led through various applications with special emphasis on the economic interpretation of results;
• exposed to issues involved in using models for specific applications such as the analysis of trade, public finance, regulation and environmental economics.

Business Report - 22 August 2012

Read more...

Abstract

Using data from two surveys evaluating South Africa's investment climate that were administered by the World Bank, I found evidence suggesting that there exists a relationship between perceptions of managers with regard to labour regulations and firm performance. Firms whose managers perceived labour regulations to be burdensome performed worse than other firms. They grew more slowly and were less likely to invest their profits in the establishment than other firms.
There is also evidence suggesting that where firms perceive labour regulations to be burdensome, they will substitute away from the conventional employment contract (regular or permanent contract) towards more atypical employment contracts (temporary or part-time contracts) which have a lower regulatory burden. There is evidence that also suggests firms are not limited in their ability to substitute towards this atypical employment despite limits imposed by South Africa's labour legislation. I found no evidence to suggest that firms who find labour regulations to be burdensome will choose to substitute away from labour towards capital.

About the Speaker

Dinga Fatman is an economist at TIPS. He joined TIPS in 2011 to provide research assistance in the industrial development pillar. He is in the process of completing his Master's degree in Economics at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. His Masters dissertation topic was entitled: “Labour Regulations and Firm Performance in South Africa”. Dinga's general research interests involve South Africa's investment climate issues.

TIPS has the pleasure to invite you to a follow-up workshop discussing the impact of China on South Africa. The main objective of the workshop is to engage in a discussion on the impacts of bilateral trade with China on the domestic economy (in terms of employment, wages, output and productivity) and the impact of Chinese competition in third markets on South African exports of manufactures.

About the Project Leaders
Professor Rhys Jenkins is Professor of Development Studies at the University of East Anglia. Rhys is an economist interested in international development issues, but particularly those related to trade, foreign investment and industrialization. Rhys has worked closely with UNCTAD, UNIDO and with the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) as well as for the Department of International Development. Rhys' current research focuses on the impact of the growth of China on other developing countries, especially Latin America. Rhys has published extensively. Some of his published books include Transnational Corporations and Uneven Development (Methuen), Environmental Regulation in the New Global Economy (Edward Elgar), Industry and Environment in Latin America (Routledge) and Corporate Responsibility and Labour Rights (Earthscan). Amongst his long list of journal article publications is a recent piece for Revista CEPAL on “'The Chinese Effect' on the Price of Basic Goods and on the Value of Exports from Latin America” (2011), “Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters” in World Economy (2008), "The Impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean" (with others) for World Development (2008).

Lawrence Edwards is an Associate Professor in the School of Economics, University of Cape Town. Lawrence's research falls within the field of international trade with a specific focus on international trade and labour, the determinants of trade flows and economic adjustments to trade liberalisation. He has published in a number of international and local journals including World Development, Journal of International Development, South African Journal of Economics and Journal of Studies in Economics and Econometrics. He has also consulted widely with the World Bank, the National Treasury, the Department of Trade and Industry and was recently a member of the South African Growth Project managed by the Centre of International Development at
Harvard University.

The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) announces the first South African Economic Regulators Conference.

On 21-22 August 2012 the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) will host the Economic Regulators Conference to be held at Emperors Palace, Johannesburg, South Africa.

The purpose of the conference is to establish and advance an intellectual discourse in economic regulation in South Africa (SA). Moreover the conference aims to:

• To share knowledge and best practice among economic regulators in SA with the participation of invited international economic regulators.
• To generate cross- fertilization of ideas among economic regulators, intellectuals, academics and others working in the era of economic regulation.
• To attract interest among students, academics, practitioners in economic regulation and the like to the area of economic regulation.
• To provide an environment for dialogue between practitioners in economic regulation, researchers, policy-makers and other stakeholders around economic regulation issues. Read more

"How can South Africa's economic regulators contribute to cost-effective delivery of essential infrastructure in the face of key financial, social and environmental imperatives?"

Online Registration now open! Closing date: 10 August 2012!

Stephen Timm is a South African policy researcher and journalist who has written on small business and entrepreneurship for almost 10 years. Between 2003 and 2010 he wrote for Big news, a free sheet newspaper aimed at small business owners. He has since also written on small business for a number of other business publications, including Business Day, Business Report and Entrepreneur magazine. He currently writes for the government's news agency BuaNews, where he reports from Parliament. He has also travelled to four emerging countries in the last two years to research programmes and policies that the South African government can learn from to bolster support to small enterprises. Earlier this year he presented a research report, funded by the Department of Trade and Industry and economic think-tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) on what South Africa can learn from Chile and Malaysia to boost support to small businesses. The report was a follow up to a research report he presented last year for TIPS titled, How to boost support from small business: Lessons from Brazil and India. Timm also won the Africa SMME Award for Journalist of the year in 2005. He has a higher diploma in journalism from Rhodes University and a History Hons from UCT. He lives in Cape Town.